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| 2008 - Volume 1 |
 2008 NIC MAP Training Series
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| Occupancy Preview Heading into Q4, 2007 (Top 31 MSAs) Since mid 2004, the seniors housing and care industry has seen unprecedented demand. However, in 2007 we witnessed a “softening” of demand for each of the service types NIC MAP tracks. In independent living, occupancy declined 60 bps from 93.1% in Q4, 2006 to 92.5% in Q3, 2007. In assisted living, occupancy declined 80 bps from 91.3% in Q4, 2006 to 90.5% in Q3, 2007. Dementia care declined 70 bps from 91.9% to 91.2% and nursing care declined just 10 bps from 90.7% to 90.6%. Below is a brief preview of what to look for in Q4, 2007. Independent Living In the IL sector, absorption has been slowing over the past year and supply has been steady to increasing. In the 31 largest metros, inventory (net increase in supply) has been increasing on average by 1,680 units while demand (absorption) has been averaging 1,344 units per quarter. While absorption is positive, it has been slowing over the past two quarters, averaging just 150 units per quarter. There are about 3,800 units scheduled to open*(top 31 MSAs) in Q4, 2007 (NIC MAP Q3, 2007 Construction Report). While not accounting for deletions to inventory, it does appear that inventory will increase and thus absorption will need to rise in concert in order to maintain current occupancy. Assisted Living The assisted living sector has seen negative absorption in the last 2 quarters (–766 units in Q2, 2007 and –333 units in Q3, 2007). Supply has been fairly steady, only increasing by 483 units. There are 1,451 units scheduled to open* (NIC MAP Q3, 2007 Construction Report), so it does appear absorption will need to turn positive in order to maintain occupancy. Dementia Care In dementia, both absorption and inventory have been fairly stable over the past two quarters. Absorption has averaged –17 units while inventory has risen by a total of 302 units over this time. There are 350 units scheduled to open* (NIC MAP Q3, 2007 Construction Report). Nursing Care In the nursing care segment, absorption has declined by 2,256 units in the last two quarters. Inventory has been keeping pace at a net of 1,968 units deleted during the past two quarters. There are less than 400 beds scheduled to open* (NIC MAP Q3, 2007 Construction Report). It does not appear that demand will have to contend with rising inventory in this sector. *Due to construction delays, it is not anticipated that all of these units will open in Q4, 2007. Over the past 4 quarters, between 30% and 61% of units have not opened in their scheduled quarter. |
| Contact Us: 410-267-0504 support@nicmap.org Research Subscriber Services Subscription Upgrades Supply Database Inquiries Training Michael Hargrave, VP NIC MAP Lawrence Horan, PhD NIC Research Director Amber Zirnhelt, NIC MAP Subscription Services Manager |
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Mark Your Calendars
NIC MAP Q4, 2007 Data Release & Subscriber Conference CallFriday, February 29 at 11 A.M. EST NIC MAP Web Training Setting up Supply/Demand Charts Using NIC MAP Trends Wednesday, March 12 at 11 A.M EST Key Metrics Tuesday, March 18 at 11 A.M EST Advanced Subscriber Training Session Monday, April 14, 12:00-4:00 P.M. CST Four Seasons Hotel in Chicago, IL Lunch Served. For more information or to register please contact Amber Zirnhelt at azirnhelt@nic.org or 410-267-0504 |
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Subscriber Spotlight
At URBEK, market analysis is viewed as applied urban economics – a mix of economics and geography. Primary market areas are determined by drive times around a particular site or location, roughly 10 to 15 minutes one-way (non-rush-hour). Typically, these are irregularly shaped polygons. URBEK makes their own county population estimate, and then uses the Demographicsnow.com drive-time algorithm to get an initial estimate of population characteristics for the submarket. The NIC MAP database is then used to identify the relevant seniors housing properties. The drive-time results are refined during the field work, as are the relevance (and details) of individual properties. For more information, please visit www.urbek.com. |